PACK ODDS,
EXPLAINED.

HH · GUIDE 02PACK ODDS EXPLAINEDREV 2026-09

Odds pick a tier, not a card

Every card in the vault is filed under one tier. From most common to least, the tiers are common, uncommon, rare, holo, ultra and secret. The odds on the pack screen are odds of a tier. When a slot lists a chance of holo, that's the chance the slot lands on the holo tier. Which holo you get is a second step: it is one of the available cards filed under that tier.

So a tier chance is never the chance of one particular card. A single card sits inside a tier alongside every other card filed there, and the number of cards in a tier changes as cards are pulled, traded back and shipped. If you have one exact card in mind, read Pulling vs Buying Singles before you open anything.

Per slot is not per pack

A HoloHunt Pack has five slots, and the odds are listed for each one. Slots don't have to share a table. One slot might only ever draw from the lower tiers while another draws from rare and up. Read each row as "this slot, this tier" and don't carry a row from one slot over to another.

The most common mistake is adding slot chances together to get a chance for the whole pack. It overcounts. Say two slots each give some chance of a tier. Adding them treats the case where both slots land that tier as if it were two separate outcomes. When slots are drawn independently, the right way is the other way around: work out the chance that every eligible slot misses, multiply those misses together, and subtract the result from one. That gives you the chance of at least one. It is always a bit less than the simple sum.

You don't need to do this math to open a pack. It's worth knowing so that a big-looking number on one row doesn't turn into a bigger number in your head.

What odds don't tell you

Odds describe how often a tier comes up. That's all they describe. They say nothing about:

• Condition. Each vault card has a condition grade recorded at intake, shown before you act on it. That is separate from the odds table.
• Which card. The tier is drawn first. The specific card comes from what is filed under that tier.
• Price. A rarer tier is not a statement about what a card is worth, and the pack price isn't either. Market values in the app are estimates attributed to TCGplayer, not appraisals.

Nothing in a HoloHunt Pack is guaranteed. There is no minimum tier and no "every tenth pack" rule. Each pack is five random cards drawn against the odds on the screen.

Odds can change. Your receipt can't.

Odds are set per pack version and can be adjusted between versions. That's why the receipt matters. It carries the manifest hash, a fingerprint of the exact odds table your open was resolved against. A later change produces a different hash, so it can never quietly rewrite an old receipt. It also means you should read the pack screen each time you buy instead of trusting a screenshot from last week.

New kinds of packs, like the special and premium packs planned after launch, come with their own odds tables. They are separate packs, so each one gets read on its own terms.

Checking the draw after the fact

Published odds are a claim. HoloHunt makes that claim checkable with a commit-reveal scheme:

1. Before you spend, the server picks a secret seed and publishes its hash. That hash is the commitment. It is locked in before you choose anything.
2. Your pull is decided by that server seed, your client seed and a nonce that counts your opens. You can change your client seed whenever you like.
3. Your receipt prints the server seed hash, client seed, nonce and manifest hash verbatim.
4. After the server seed rotates it is revealed. Hash it and compare with the commitment, then rerun the HMAC-SHA256 draw. The same inputs give the same result every time.

The verifier on the homepage runs that check in your browser without sending anything. If you think a pull is wrong, email support@holohunt.app with the open ID from your receipt. The same numbers that let you check our work let us re-derive the pull exactly.

Questions